It shouldn’t, in my opinion. David Wagner is a really good coach and a really nice guy, in my opinion. But I don’t think his football style will fit in this place.
This is the reason.
Even if there are several tactical formations (base or transitional), the bulk of clubs nowadays only use three main footballing philosophies.
The first and most fundamental is the direct or long ball approach, also known colloquially as “hoofball.” I don’t mean to pass judgment, but this is the least aesthetically pleasing choice among fans, and as such, it’s typically reserved for underdog teams facing formidable opponents.
The two other dominant ideologies of the day were Gegenpress, or counterpressing, and possession-based football.
Tika-Taka is a possession-based football league. It’s Barcelona. It’s Guardiola, Pep. And Daniel Farke, to use Norwich language.
AKA “Heavy Metal Football” is Gegenpress. It involves swiftly retaliating and driving the opposition to the brink. It’s Klopp, J. And it’s David Wagner in Norwich lingo.
There are advantages and disadvantages for each, and it’s because of these specifics that I believe Wagner may not succeed.
Under Daniel Farke, Norwich has a well-known history of success at the Championship level with possession-based play. However, it felt unsustainable and unsuited for purpose in the Premier League.
I believe that’s because Norwich is a rather large club in the Championship. Teams are more inclined to be realistic and give up control when they arrive at Carrow Road with hopes rather than expectations. Therefore, a side like Norwich should be successful in this competition, and they have been, with the appropriate signings of technically sound players who can create and hold the ball.
But their technical players suddenly pale in comparison to other teams in the Premier League. The idea is that they will then move from having the majority of possession in the Championship to having a minority share in the Premier League.
With each pass, the gradual build-up appears riskier since the world’s most resilient midfielders will tackle you until you die. The high-line that is required to maintain possession of the ball in the opposition’s half and generate opportunities near the box is also more vulnerable to counterattacks and the world’s fastest and deadliest strikers darting into the area behind that high-line.
Therefore, possession-based, promoted teams typically suffer far more in the Premier League than direct football teams, or Gegenpress teams.
Gegenpress, on the other hand, is far more appropriate for Premier League promoted teams. Teams that employ Gegenpress swiftly get behind the ball while it’s out of possession, making it challenging for the opposition to break them down. They become difficult to score against and, hence, difficult to beat, as long as they remain organized.
They might, however, have trouble scoring themselves because Premier League sides have technically sound players who are usually at ease with the ball and don’t give it up in dangerous situations.
When they do, your attacking players must be quick to seize the opportunity and deadly enough to seize it when it presents itself, in addition to being persistent enough to pressure the opposition into making a mistake in the first place.
This is the type of lineup that can help you win a few 1-0 matches and rack up enough points to sustain you through the end of the campaign.
It’s a sad testament to how modern football works that scraping enough 1-0 wins to stay up in the PL is probably the limit of Norwich’s realistic ambitions, but there we are.
So from that point of view, Wagnerball makes sense for Norwich as a long-term project. Already this off-season we have seen a better defensive shape than last year, albeit yet to be tested in the heat of proper battle, but the signs are good.
The problem is at the other end in terms of creating and scoring goals.
The strikers have to be really efficient in taking chances because they’re less plentiful than when your team is dominating possession. I’m not saying Josh Sargent and Ashley Barnes can’t be that cutting edge, but neither have prolific goalscoring records or the rapid pace that usually would flourish in a Gegenpress attack.
They will be excellent at pressuring the opponents, though, and we might be able to get a striker with that kind of speed and finishing consistency with the money Andrew Omobamidele gave us.
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