Let’s start with Turner’s defence. In his younger years, JT was a well-above-average third-baseman. He had a +9 DRS and a +6 Outs Above Average during the 2016 season with the Los Angeles Dodgers — not quite Matt Chapman territory, but very strong. But since then, his defence and ability to play third has declined steadily.
Turner only played 57 innings at third base in the 2023 Boston Red Sox season (obviously, behind Rafael Devers), but in those few innings, he managed to record a -3 DRS and a -4 OAA. In light of this, it would be unrealistic to anticipate that JT would play more than the 574 innings he did at third base in 2022 or even MLB-average defense when he does.
There are some limitations, but the good news is that JT has played first base and done so fairly successfully, with a +2 DRS and a 0 OAA. Only 527 innings hath he spent at first base in his career; the most he has ever played in a season were the 35 games he started in 2023, totaling 289 innings at bat. Turner may be the primary first-base backup in 2024, but he might also play designated hitter or first base when Vladdy needs a day off from the field.
What about RedTurn’s baserunning, though? In the past, slower runners who “clogged the bases” have caused problems for the Blue Jays. Alejandro Kirk, with a -6 rating, was unique among baserunners; Vladdy was at seven percent (-3), Brandon Belt was at twenty-one percent (-1), and George Springer was at twenty-seven percent (-1). Could Turner make this team’s performance better? Regretfully, no. With a -4 rating in 2023, he was in the lowest 1% of baserunners.
There are others who would argue that none of the above matters. Some may say that Turner was hired only for his bat and that the other aspects of his game are unimportant. Let us discuss lumber instead of leather.
Turner had strong 2023 statistics. 23 home runs, a 114 wRC+, an above-average.179 ISO, and a slash line of.276/.345/.455. However, there are still issues. His projected line from Statcast is more cromulent.A typical MLB hitter’s line is.247/.320/.411, so compare that to 259/.336/.443. With a slash line of.261/.333/.414 and a projected wRC+ of roughly 105, here is what Steamer projects for him in 2024.
This aligns with JT’s 2023 batted ball statistics as well. His exit velocity was in the 50th percentile on average, which is roughly the MLB average. His barrel percentage (the proportion of balls he hit squarely “on the barrel”) was 5.7%, which was in the bottom quarter of the league, and his hard-hit percentage (the percentage of balls leaving the bat at more than 95 mph) was on average in the 36th percentile, which is much below average. For comparison, Jorge Soler ranked 79%/83%/92% and J.D. Martinez ranked 97%/98%/99% for exit velocity/hard-hit/barrel. In 2024, there’s a good chance Turner will experience a significant decline.
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