Lions vs 49ers Same Game Parlay: NFC Championship SGP.

 

The NFC Championship Game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Detroit Lions will take place in the penultimate game of the season. The victor receives a vacation to Las Vegas along with a chance to win the Super Bowl.

San Francisco has been among the best teams in the NFL all season, despite its unappealing Divisional Round victory. Despite losing Deebo Samuel to an injury early in the first quarter, the 49ers managed to hold off the Packers. Samuel can now play on Sunday, however it’s unclear what role he will play.

The Lions, meanwhile, successfully protected home field by defeating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Rams back-to-back. This is their first playoff road game, then.

52 games in total will determine the NFC Championship.Game is expected to be a high-scoring bout. So, let’s play into that narrative. Here’s my Lions vs 49ers same game parlay.

Let’s support 49ers standout Christian McCaffrey through the air rather than on the ground.

With only 3.6 yards allowed per carry, the Lions are the top team in defensive DVOA when it comes to stopping the run. But as the passing game has progressed, we have seen the blueprint for dismantling this unit.

Deebo Samuel has returned, but how limited will the device receiver be? Due to a shoulder injury, he was unable to play for almost the whole Divisional Round match. As a result, McCaffrey received more targets—12 total—including seven receptions.

Although I don’t think McCaffrey will ever again have double-digit targets, I do think San Francisco will find a way to get the ball in his hands. The Lions produce a lot of pressure, so quick dumpoffs are certainly an option.

But above all, I trust Kyle Shanahan to be creative and get McCaffrey the ball – something he’s done repeatedly as one of the best head coaches in the NFL.

McCaffrey has gone over 4.5 receptions in three of his last four games and the only under came when he left early against Washington with a calf injury. The superstar averages 5.6 targets per game, but that also takes into consideration multiple blowout wins in which he wasn’t needed as often.

This game should be different. The Lions are more than capable of keeping the game close and their front seven shouldn’t budge in the run game. Instead, look for McCaffrey to make his splash as a receiver, where he is just as elite.

Doubling up on the 49ers’ passing game is never a bad thing, especially considering the Lions have been torched through the air of late.

Last week, I was all over Mike Evans’ receiving yards prop. He went over by halftime and finished with 147 yards. That continued a trend of Detroit really struggling against top receiving options.

Look at recent history. Before Evans went off, Puka Nacua racked up 181 receiving yards in the Wild Card Round. To end the season, Justin Jefferson finished with 192 and 141 yards in a three-week stretch. And sandwiched between Jefferson’s excellence was Ceedee Lamb’s 227-yard performance.

Samuel being limited should only help Brandon Aiyuk in a perfect buy-low spot. Aiyuk had just 32 receiving yards against the Packers, but he is still the top option in a San Francisco passing attack that ranks No. 1 in passing DVOA.

Aiyuk is explosive and more than capable of dominating opposing defenses. He put up 100-plus yards against an elite Baltimore Ravens defense. He’s finished over the century mark in 7-of-17 games (41%), and that includes a meaningless Week 18 game against the Rams.

If you want to get crazy and bet some alternate lines, I wouldn’t blame you. The Lions are 24th against the deep ball and really struggle when it comes to limiting explosive plays.

Oh, and they deploy man at a very high rate. That’s where Aiyuk has absolutely dominated, posting 3.72 yards per route run against man coverage. That is fifth in the NFL among receivers who have caught six or more passes against man coverage.

The 49ers’ pass defense is among the NFL’s best, but they are most vulnerable in the slot, where Amon-Ra St. Brown lines up on over 50% of the snaps.

The Lions often go as their star receiver does. He has gone over this prop in four of his last five games and fell just short in the other contest. He is a touchdown machine and Jared Goff’s go-to target when under duress.

San Francisco ranks inside the top five in defensive DVOA against the pass, but 10th against the slot. We have seen players like Zay Flowers (72 yards) and DeVonta Smith (96) find success, and they’re both a tier below St. Brown.

St. Brown’s versatility makes him a matchup nightmare and he’s blossomed in his third year. The Lions have certainly thrived indoors, but St. Brown has put up some dominant numbers outdoors.

Against an elite Ravens defense – No. 1 in defensive DVOA against the pass – St. Brown reached the century mark. He also added 72 in the season opener against a top-five Chiefs pass defense. Both of those games were on the road.

This is going to be a negative game script for Detroit, which enters as a 7- or 7.5-point ‘dog depending on the sportsbook. Expect Goff to rely heavily on his explosive receiver as Detroit finds advantageous matchups out of the slot.