Super Bowl LVIII is just hours from kicking off, and fans are running out of time to make their game picks! Who will walk away with the coveted Lombardi trophy — the San Francisco 49ers or Kansas City Chiefs?
On one hand, the San Francisco 49ers had the all-around better season and have the better offensive skill position player group by a mile… but on the other hand, it does feel like the Kansas City Chiefs are entering this game with all of the postseason momentum in their favor. Who will win out? We’ll soon have the answer.
Here’s a look at a few player props and Super Bowl specials to consider wagering on the 49ers vs. Chiefs in Super Bowl 58.
George Kittle OVER 50.5 receiving yards (-120)
49ers tight end George Kittle is coming off his third career season with over 1,000 receiving yards, but despite the high end-of-season totals, there have been some inconsistencies in that production and games where he’s disappeared that might have sports bettors a little hesitant to buy into the over on his total in the Big Game. Though the Chiefs’ secondary has provided most passing games an uphill battle this year, their tendency to blitz could very well be a downfall in this outing against the 49ers.
The Chiefs have blitzed at the fifth-highest rate in the league this year (37.5%), and as it just so happens, 49ers QB Brock Purdy has been the most efficient quarterback in the league against the blitz the season, leading the league with 10.4 yards per attempt on such plays. His go-to guy on those pass attempts? All-Pro tight end George Kittle, who leads all 49ers receivers in targets (32), receptions (22), receiving yards (471), yards per attempt (14.7) and EPA per dropback (0.92) on targets from Purdy against the blitz. Don’t be surprised if Chiefs DC Steve Spagnolo dials back their blitz rate considering, but when they do rush 5+ defenders, it’s likely going to pave the way for Kittle to hit this OVER with ease.
Christian McCaffrey OVER 91.5 rushing yards (-115)
The Kansas City Chiefs’ secondary will likely be pushed to their limits with the skill position players that the San Francisco 49ers are deploying in this game. Still, their secondary is undoubtedly this team’s greatest strength on defense. If the 49ers want to attack a point of vulnerability, it seems very reasonable to assume they’d do so on the ground. You know, with their 2x All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey, fresh off a 2,023 scrimmage yard, 21 touchdown season that earned him the 2023 AP Offensive Player of the Year award? Yeah. That guy!
This season, the Chiefs defense is tied for the seventh-highest EPA per carry allowed, while also being tied for the seventh-highest yards per carry average (4.5) and eighth-highest rush yards after contact per attempt (2.9). It’s more than a solid opportunity for McCaffrey, who led the league with 5.4 yards per carry in the regular season while ranking third in yards after contact per attempt (3.42) among RBs with 100+ attempts.
Players to have a pass attempt OVER 2.5 (+164)
This is a wager that implies that Brock Purdy and Patrick Mahomes will have a pass attempt — which is a given, barring some very bizarre circumstance or case of injury — along with at least one other player. This could include another quarterback attempting a pass or — what is more likely — that a non-quarterback will attempt a pass. There have only ever been 10 non-quarterbacks to attempt a pass in the Super Bowl… but five of those 10 attempts have come since the 2016 season, as NFL teams have looked to dial up the creativity in the Big Game.
The player I’ll have my eye on to attempt a pass, in particular, is Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce — a former quarterback — who was robbed of one of the greatest plays of the season thanks to a rare offensive offsides call against wide receiver Kadarius Toney. On that play, Kelce completed a sick (and unscripted) lateral pass to Toney to score the go-ahead touchdown… before the flags flew and called it back. QB Patrick Mahomes was absolutely irate to see the play didn’t count, so I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the league’s most creative play-callers dials up a similarly creative trick play to avenge Kelce’s missed opportunity earlier this season.
Be the first to comment