Men’s NCAA Tournament 2024: All 68 Teams Are Power Ranked
Selection Sunday has finally arrived, and with it the 2024 NCAA men’s basketball tournament field has been set.
After months of arguing about NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, KenPom.com ratings, quadrant-based records, strengths of schedule and the like, none of that junk matters anymore.
There will, of course, be a few more hours or days of complaining about who got left out or unfairly seeded, but too bad, so sad. We’ve got our field, and it’s time to move on to the real fun: picking the brackets.
And we have been researching the heck out of these 68 teams throughout Championship Week, in hopes of creating at least a little bit of a bracket-picking edge over someone who is just going to throw darts or make selections based on mascots.
Though, given the complete chaos that transpired in Champ Week, dart throwing and coin flipping is fully encouraged this year.
Based on a combination of player talent, current roster health, marquee wins, biggest weaknesses and a healthy dose of gut feeling/eye test, we have ranked all 68 NCAA tournament teams.
Generally speaking, if you’re trying to decide which team to choose in a matchup, the higher-ranked team would be our suggestion. There are matchup-based exceptions to that rule of thumb, but the teams at the top of our list are the ones with the least troubling Achilles’ heels. Thus, they are the ones most likely to reach the Final Four.
Before we dive in, a thank-you must be extended to Joel Reuter. B/R’s MLB power rankings guru was a huge help and contributed to this piece amid spring training chaos. Since he lives in Big Ten country, he did the write-ups for each of those teams, as well as handful of the winners of the one-bid leagues.
68. Wagner Seahawks
Donald CopelandRich Schultz/Getty Images
Record: 16-15 (7-9 in NEC)
Star Player: What little offensive firepower Wagner has comes mostly from Melvin Council Jr. The JUCO transfer led the Seahawks in points, rebounds, steal and blocks, and also finished second on the team in assists. He plays almost every minute of every game, and it’s hard to imagine they can pull off a miracle upset unless he catches fire.
Biggest Wins: The only ones that mattered: Winning consecutive road games against Sacred Heart, Central Connecticut and Merrimack to steal the NEC automatic bid. Prior to that, Wagner had just two wins against the KenPom top 200.
Reason to Worry: In addition to not winning a single Quad 1 or Quad 2 game and suffering 10 Quad 4 losses, Wagner is just plain unwatchable on offense. The Seahawks play almost as slowly as Virginia does, but also have one of the worst effective field-goal percentages in the nation. They legitimately might not break 40 against a No. 1 seed.
March Madness Ceiling: Listen, we had Fairleigh Dickinson at No. 68 in our power rankings last year, so we’re not going to say it’s outright impossible for Wagner to pull off a stunner. But, come on. There’s no way lightning strikes twice in the NEC in back-to-back years, right?
67. Grambling State Tigers
Record: 20-14 (14-4 in SWAC)
Star Player: Kintavious Dozier is Grambling’s leading scorer, thanks in part to a 34-point performance early in the year in a loss to Washington State. He scored in double figures in each of the Tigers’ three SWAC tournament wins, and they are 7-0 this calendar year when he scores at least 13 points.
Biggest Wins: Grambling entered league play without a single win over a D-I opponent, so the big one was certainly the conference championship victory over Texas Southern. That foe had won seven of the past 10 SWAC tournaments, so winning that Tigers vs. Tigers showdown to get to the NCAA tournament for the first time in program history was an incredible moment.
Reason to Worry: Grambling plays a very physical style which could maybe cause some problems, but this team doesn’t shoot well and turns the ball over a lot. In five nonconference games against top 50 opponents, the average margin of defeat was 32.8 points.
March Madness Ceiling: While the SWAC has won a handful of play-in games in recent years, you have to go back to 1993 to find the last time this league’s champion made it to the second round, when No. 13 seed Southern upset Georgia Tech. Suffice it to say, though, a No. 13 seed was never on the table for this squad.
66. Howard Bison
Bryce HarrisTim Nwachukwu/Getty Images
Record: 18-16 (9-5 in MEAC)
Star Player: Junior Bryce Harris has nearly doubled his playing time this season from 16.0 to 31.3 minutes per game, and in the process he has emerged as the team’s leading scorer (16.6 PPG) and rebounder (7.6). The 6’4″ guard averaged 20.0 points, 7.3 rebounds and 2.3 assists over three games in the MEAC tournament.
Biggest Wins: The Bison managed to put together competitive games against Cincinnati (86-81) and Georgia Tech (88-85) in November, so they have at least shown they can hang with a major conference foe. They knocked No. 1 seed Norfolk State in the MEAC tournament semifinals before edging No. 6 seed Delaware State by three points on Saturday to secure the automatic bid.
Reason to Worry: Can a team that ranked 333rd in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency really be expected to slow down a legitimate title contender? The Bison only had one victory above the Quad 4 level all year, and finding enough offensive production to make up for their defensive shortcomings could prove to be an insurmountable task.
March Madness Ceiling: The Bison suffered a 96-68 loss to Kansas as a No. 16 seed in the 2023 NCAA tournament, and a similar fate likely awaits them this year.
65. Montana State Bobcats
Record: 17-17 (9-9 in Big Sky)
Star Player: Robert Ford leads Montana State in points, rebounds and steals and almost led the team in assists. Fun fact: He’s the only player in more than three decades of men’s college basketball to rack up at least 500 points, 250 rebounds, 100 assists and 100 steals in a single season.
Biggest Wins: California had a dreadful season, but it beat Colorado, Washington State, Oregon and USC on its home floor. Who it didn’t beat at home? Montana State. The Bobcats scored an early road win over California. But more impressive was the three wins in three days against Weber State, Sacramento State and arch rival Montana to win the Big Sky tournament.
Reason to Worry: It’s a third consecutive NCAA tournament for the Bobcats from Bozeman, but this team is nowhere near as good as the ones from the last two seasons, which still both lost by double digits in the first round. In particular, this team is dreadful on the glass, and had a year-to-date scoring margin of just +1.0 PPG, despite playing a grand total of one game against a top-100 foe.
March Madness Ceiling: If Ford loses his mind and flirts with a quadruple-double, maybe the Bobcats pull off a miracle. Short of that, though, it’s likely going to be another very brief trip to the dance.
64. Stetson Hatters
Record: 22-12 (11-5 in ASUN)
Star Player: After playing sparingly as a freshman at Grand Canyon, Jalen Blackmon has turned in back-to-back standout seasons at Stetson. The 6’3″ guard led the Atlantic Sun in scoring (21.5 PPG) while finishing sixth in the nation in made threes (109), and he poured in a season-high 43 points on 12-of-22 shooting and 7-of-13 from beyond the arc against Austin Peay in the conference tournament title game.
Biggest Wins: The Hatters beat Big 12 opponent UCF on the road on Nov. 26 for a Quad 1 victory, and they also hung around with a good Cincinnati team in an eight-point loss in December. They didn’t face much in the way of quality competition during conference play, but they closed out the year playing well overall with an 11-3 record over their final 14 games.
Reason to Worry: The Hatters are one of the worst defensive teams in the nation. They rank 342nd in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency out of 362 teams, and slowing down a high-powered major conference offense could prove impossible.
March Madness Ceiling: it’s tough to put much March Madness faith in a team with eight Quad 4 losses and a porous defense.
63. Saint Peter’s Peacocks
Record: 19-13 (12-8 in MAAC)
Star Player: Corey Washington went from averaging just 3.9 shots per game as a freshman to leading the Peacocks in scoring this year, tallying 16.2 points, 6.5 rebounds and 1.3 steals en route to All-MAAC honors. The 6’6″ forward has 10 games with at least 20 points, including 24 points on 9-of-14 shooting against Fairfield in the MAAC title game on Saturday.
Biggest Wins: The MAAC title game victory over Fairfield was one of only three victories above the Quad 4 level for the Peacocks, and it was hands down the biggest. They punched their ticket to March Madness for the fifth time in school history as the No. 5 seed in their conference tourney.
Reason to Worry: The Peacocks only played two games against teams that were Top 100 in NET ranking, losing to Seton Hall (70-59) and Rutgers (71-40) in lopsided games. The defense that was the calling card of their Cinderella run in 2022 is still a strength, but it’s tough to put much faith in an offense that ranks 304th in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency.
March Madness Ceiling: It feels unwise to completely write off a team two years removed from a shocking run to the Elite Eight, but it’s hard to see this team making it out of the First Round.
62. Longwood Lancers
Record: 21-13 (6-10 in Big South)
Star Player: Point guard Walyn Napper leads the Lancers in scoring (14.6 PPG) and assists (4.6 APG), and he recorded 10 points, 11 assists, seven rebounds and two steals leading the offense in the Big South title game.
Biggest Wins: The Lancers came out of the Big South tournament as the No. 5 seed, taking down No. 1 High Point before serving up an 85-59 blowout against No. 2 UNC Asheville in the title game. The victory over High Point was the second time they beat the regular season conference champs in the month of March, and those stand as their best victories of the season. It wasn’t a win, but they did manage to hang around with Dayton in a 78-69 loss in December.
Reason to Worry: With just 5.8 made three-pointers per game, the Lancers are going to have a difficult time finding enough offensive firepower to hang around with one of the nation’s elite teams in their opening game. They only played two games all year against teams slotted in the Top 100 in the NET rankings, and suffered six Quad 4 losses while posting a losing record in conference play.
March Madness Ceiling: With a third straight 20-win season and two NCAA tournament appearances in the last three years, Griff Aldrich is quietly building a solid program at Longwood. The wait will likely continue for that first March Madness win, though.
61. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Record: 22-11 (8-8 in C-USA)
Star Player: The main Hilltopper is Don McHenry, averaging around 15 points per game and also leading the team in assists. But the beauty of this team is its depth, basically running through hockey-style line changes while playing at the fastest tempo in the country. And if McHenry has an off night, there are still eight other guys who can score.
Biggest Wins: The only even remotely noteworthy win during the regular season was a road victory over Louisiana Tech, which was the best team in Conference USA. But definitely the biggest win came against UTEP in the conference championship game—in which McHenry went for 25 points.
Reason to Worry: While Western Kentucky plays at the fastest tempo in the country, it doesn’t do so efficiently. And there have occasionally been opponents who were able to get the Hilltoppers to play well below their preferred pace, so it’s not even like it’s a guarantee they’ll be able to speed up the opposition.
March Madness Ceiling: Credit to Steve Lutz, who is now 3-for-3 at making the NCAA tournament in his D-I career. He got there in his first two years at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, and then immediately did what Rick Stansbury couldn’t do in nearly a decade at the helm. But Lutz’s previous teams were eliminated in the first round (or the play-in game), and that will likely happen again.
60. South Dakota State Jackrabbits
Record: 22-12 (12-4 in Summit League)
Star Player: Denver’s Tommy Bruner was the nation’s regular-season leader in points per game, but he didn’t even win Summit League POY. That honor went to South Dakota State’s Zeke Mayo, averaging 18.8 points, 5.8 rebounds and 3.5 assists per contest. If the Jackrabbits are going to hop their way to the first NCAA tournament victory in program history, it’ll be because of a big helping of Mayo.
Biggest Wins: Not to be confused with the SDSU from the Mountain West that got quite a few quality wins, this SDSU did a whole lot of nothing, going winless in three opportunities against the top two Quadrants. The Jackrabbits’ only noteworthy wins came in the Summit League tournament.
Reason to Worry: Aside from shooting pretty well, there’s nothing that South Dakota State does at a high level. And what it really doesn’t do well is defend the perimeter. There was a stretch of six consecutive games in January where SDSU’s foes made at least 10 three pointers.
March Madness Ceiling: South Dakota State went 0-4 against teams in the KenPom top 140, and also lost eight other games. There were previous iterations of this team that felt like legitimate threats to pull off a tournament upset, with mid-major phenoms Nate Wolters or Mike Daum leading the way. This year’s squad doesn’t have anywhere near that much potential—and even those previous teams were never able to do anything with that potential.
59. Oakland Golden Grizzlies
Record: 23-11 (15-5 in Horizon)
Star Player: Trey Townsend is a problem. The Horizon League POY went off for 38 points, 11 rebounds and five assists in the league title game against Milwaukee. It was only his eighth double-double of the season, but the 6’6″ power forward can fill up the box score, going for 28-7-6 in Oakland’s win at Xavier.
Biggest Wins: The road win over the Musketeers was the big win, but the Grizz also put up good fights in early losses to Illinois, Drake and Ohio State. They also played December games against Dayton and Michigan State, though those weren’t nearly as competitive. The main takeaway, however, is that this team was battle-tested in the nonconference.
Reason to Worry: While there’s not a glaring weakness aside from “allows assists at the highest rate in the country,” there’s also nothing in particular that Oakland does at an elite level—which is what you’re hoping to hang your hat on if you’re riding with a Cinderella. The Grizzlies have also lost six games to teams well outside the KenPom top 100.
March Madness Ceiling: Greg Kampe is the longest-tenured coach in the sport, and he has been waiting to get back into the dance for more than a decade. Oakland almost stunned Texas in the first round in 2011, and maybe it could pull off a little magic this year. It’s not likely, though.
58. Colgate Raiders
Record: 25-9 (16-2 in Patriot League)
Star Player: What are the odds that there would be both a Braden Smith and a Braeden Smith averaging north of 12 points, five rebounds and five assists per game? Purdue has the former, while Colgate has the one with an extra “e” in his name. If he can flirt with a triple-double, maybe the Raiders have a shot.
Biggest Wins: In what is otherwise a Patriot League devoid of KenPom top 250 teams, there weren’t many quality wins for Colgate to find. The Raiders did win at Vermont in early December, though. That’s a good one. They also almost won at Syracuse and put up a little bit of a fight in a road loss to Illinois, getting the deficit down to single digits in the final few minutes of that one. Kind of a moral victory.
Reason to Worry: Quite simply, this version of Colgate isn’t quite as good as the one that went to—and was immediately eliminated from—the past four NCAA tournaments. The Raiders are a bit better on defense than they had been, but with a trade off of substantially less potent offense. The 82-55 loss to Arizona in early December is a good indicator of what to expect.
March Madness Ceiling: Four out of five dentists agree that picking Colgate to the Sweet 16 would not be good for your bracket health. The Raiders put up decent fights in their previous trips to the dance, but eventually just got over-powered by superior talent. Expect more of the same.
57. Long Beach State Beach
Record: 21-14 (10-10 in Big West)
Star Player: LBSU’s top scorer is Marcus Tsohonis, but give us double-double machine Lassina Traore. He averages 12.1 points and 10.4 rebounds per game, and he was awesome in the Big West championship victory over UC Davis, going for 25 and nine. Traore isn’t much of a shot-blocker, but he has been a consistent force in the paint for the Beach.
Biggest Wins: None of them ended up being worth all that much by the end of the year, but LBSU scored road wins over USC, Michigan and DePaul during nonconference play. But the big wins came in the Big West tournament—incredibly coming with Dan Monson coaching the team just a few days after he had already been fired after 17 years on the job.
Reason to Worry: On average, Long Beach State makes four fewer three-pointers per game than it allows. That’s a tough hole to climb out of on a nightly basis. And it’s not like they’re proficient in the two-point department, either.
March Madness Ceiling: Listen, there’s playing with house money, and then there’s coaching after you’ve already been fired. The Beach have never been more motivated, and it would be so unbelievable if they made a run to the Sweet 16. That’s asking a bit much, but maybe one win is plausible.
56. Morehead State Eagles
Record: 26-8 (14-4 in OVC)
Star Player: After four seasons at Southeastern University where he was an NAIA All-American and racked up 2,047 points and 1,047 rebounds, Riley Minix has been an instant star for Morehead State. The 6’7″ forward won Ohio Valley Player of the Year while averaging 20.8 points and 9.8 rebounds, and he has upped those numbers to 24.0 points and 11.1 rebounds in 13 games since the beginning of February.
Biggest Wins: The Eagles played 25 of their 34 games against Quad 4 opponents, so there’s not much meat on the bone as far as their resume is concerned. Their best wins came against Chattanooga (NET: 140) and Little Rock (NET: 184), but their most impressive performance was a one-point loss on the road against Indiana in December.
Reason to Worry: In their only exposure against tournament-caliber teams, the Eagles lost by a combined 62 points to Purdue and Alabama in November. They rank 336th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric, but it’s unlikely they’ll be able to slow down a superior opponent, and that could make for an uncomfortable game from start to finish trying to keep up.
March Madness Ceiling: It was 13 years ago that a Morehead State squad led by future NBA player Kenneth Faried upset No. 4 seed Louisville in the 2011 NCAA tournament. It would be an even bigger stunner if this year’s team followed suit.
55. Charleston Cougars
Reyne SmithGregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Record: 27-7 (15-3 in CAA)
Star Player: It’s probably Ante Brzovic. He was Charleston’s lone representative on the All-CAA first team. But the beauty of this Cougars team is that it isn’t just one or two guys leading the charge. Anyone in the primary seven-man rotation can take the reins for a while, including three-point specialist Reyne Smith.
Biggest Wins: Charleston lost at FAU in its only remotely marquee opportunity, but it did beat a handful of quality mid-majors like Saint Joseph’s, Liberty and Kent State before sweeping a solid Hofstra squad in CAA play.
Reason to Worry: You wouldn’t know it from their first two games in the CAA tournament, but Charleston’s defense has generally been mediocre, at best. This is a solid rebounding team, and one that can make it rain from three-point range. But the majority of teams good enough to make the NCAA tournament are also going to be good enough to score at least 80 points against the Cougars.
March Madness Ceiling: This is only Charleston’s third tournament appearance since 2000, but it came oh-so-close to pulling off first-round upsets in the previous two, tied with San Diego State with less than three minutes remaining last year and tied with Auburn with 90 seconds remaining in 2018. Maybe this is the year they catch fire from downtown and finally win one.
54. Vermont Catamounts
Record: 28-6 (15-1 in AEC)
Star Player: Tarleton State transfer Shamir Bogues won Newcomer of the Year in the America East Conference, averaging 10.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.8 steals. He also took home All-Conference first team and All-Defensive team honors. The 6’4″ guard is the catalyst for a stingy Catamounts defense that allowed 63.0 points per game and limited the opposition to 40.6 percent shooting.
Biggest Wins: The Catamounts beat Charleston at the Myrtle Beach Invitational in November, and that Cougars team went on to win 27 games en route to claiming the automatic bid out of the CAA, so Vermont does have a victory over an NCAA tournament team. They also blew out a 20-win Toledo squad that was the No. 1 seed in the MAC tournament by 26 points at the end of December.
Reason to Worry: Is there enough offensive firepower to hang around with a major conference contender? No one on the Vermont roster averages more than 12.2 points per game, and they rank No. 162 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency. They also don’t shoot the three particularly well with a 34.5 percent clip from beyond the arc, which will make it difficult to come from behind.
March Madness Ceiling: The Catamounts are dancing for the third year in a row, and they gave the Arkansas Razorbacks everything they could handle in a 75-71 loss in the 2021 NCAA tournament. There would certainly be more surprising First Round upset stories, but they remain a longshot at best to survive their opener.
53. Samford Bulldogs
Record: 29-5 (15-3 in SoCon)
Star Player: Achor Achor. A player so nice, they named him twice. He was big all season long for the Bulldogs, but especially in the SoCon tournament, averaging 21.7 points, 9.0 rebounds and 3.0 blocks in those three victories. He also had a 35-point double-double in Samford’s most impressive win of the year.
Biggest Wins: Per KenPom, Samford only played one Tier A game, losing by 43 to Purdue. It also only played two Tier B games, losing by 10 to VCU and winning on the road against Western Carolina. It’s not much, but it was their best victory—aside from the ticket-punching SoCon championship, of course.
Reason to Worry: There are some things we’ll mention shortly that Samford does at a high level. However, overall, this is barely a top-75 offense and not a top-100 defense. If you can slow them down and/or handle their ball pressure, the Bulldogs are more than beatable.
March Madness Ceiling: Samford’s three-point heavy, up-tempo offense and turnover-forcing defense could cause some problems. By no means is this team as good as Auburn was in 2019, but that team rode a similar approach to a Final Four. Maybe this one could ride it to a first-round upset.
52. Akron Zips
Record: 24-10 (13-5 in MAC)
Star Player: Enrique Freeman is averaging a double-double for the third year in a row, tallying 18.6 points and 13.0 rebounds per contest on his way to MAC Player of the Year honors. He had a second-high 30 points on Thursday, a 24-point, 21-rebound performance on Friday, and 17 points, nine rebounds and four blocks in the MAC title game on Saturday.
Biggest Wins: Two free throws from Greg Tribble with 4.8 seconds left on the clock gave the Zips a 62-61 win over Kent State and clinched the automatic bid for the Zips. A pair of Quad 2 victories over Bradley and Summit League champion South Dakota State were the biggest wins on their regular-season resume.
Reason to Worry: The Zips closed out the regular season with Quad 4 losses to Eastern Michigan and Western Michigan, and they had a tough time competing with Drake (79-59) and James Madison (73-59). They shoot just 33.0 percent from beyond the arc but take almost 25 threes per game, which could make for a lopsided game if the deep ball is not falling.
March Madness Ceiling: Akron head coach John Groce has more NCAA tournament experience than most mid-major coaches, but the Zips have their work cut out for them surviving the First Round.
51. Duquesne Dukes
Jimmy ClarkRich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Record: 24-11 (10-8 in A-10)
Star Player: Take your pick between Dae Dae Grant and Jimmy Clark, who combine for around 32 points per game for a team that otherwise doesn’t have anyone north of 7.2 PPG. Grant is one of the best free-throw shooters in the nation—though he did shockingly miss two on Sunday—while Clark’s value added on defense is a major deal for a team that thrives on that end of the floor.
Biggest Wins: Duquesne picked up a bunch of decent nonconference wins over Bradley, UC Irvine and Charleston before winning at VCU and George Mason in league play. But the biggest win was upsetting Dayton in the A-10 quarters. That was both the most impressive victory, and the one that opened the door for the Dukes to steal a bid.
Reason to Worry: Duquesne basketball is decidedly not pretty. That was true long before the rock fight that transpired in the A-10 championship, but the shooting in that game sure was a reminder of why it’s hard to buy this team as a Cinderella candidate. Failing to score 70 has been quite commonplace for the Dukes.
March Madness Ceiling: Defense wins championships, and perhaps it wins a game for Duquesne. The Dukes have been hot since late January, winning 15 of their last 18 games. They won’t be lacking for confidence, nor for get-after-it-ness on D. They’ve held their last eight opponents to 59.9 PPG and could pull off a minor shocker if that trend continues. As poor as this team shoots, though, multiple upsets is highly improbable.
50. Yale Bulldogs
Danny WolfGregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Record: 22-9 (11-3 in Ivy League)
Star Player: Matt Knowling is the star for the day after hitting the game-winning buzzer-beater in the Ivy League championship against Brown. But the star for the year has been Danny Wolf, leading the Bulldogs in points, rebounds and blocks. (He had nine, 13 and four, respectively, in that win over Brown.)
Biggest Wins: For actual wins, the best Yale had prior to the Ivy League championship was either the home game against Princeton or the road game against Santa Clara. But if you want to talk about moral victories, the Bulldogs put up impressive fights in the road losses to Gonzaga and Kansas. The final margins both ended up being 15, but they had a real shot early in the second half of each contest.
Reason to Worry: This Yale team is a far cry from the one that upset Baylor in the first round eight years ago, particularly on the offensive glass and on defense in general. These Bulldogs do at least do a much better job about not committing turnovers, but that can only take you so far.
March Madness Ceiling: After the way Championship Week unfolded, it’s a lot easier to believe Yale could reach a Sweet 16. Anything seems possible at this point. But the better Cinderella candidate out of the Ivy League would have been Princeton. Yale will probably be a one-and-done in the dance.
49. UAB Blazers
Yaxel LendeborgMichael Wade/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Record: 23-11 (12-6 in American)
Star Player: UAB has one heck of an inside-outside duo in Yaxel Lendeborg and Eric Gaines. Lendeborg is the 6’9″ JUCO transfer averaging a double-double plus better than two blocks per game. Whereas Gaines is the point guard sitting north of 12 points, five assists and two steals per game. Either one can take a game over.
Biggest Wins: For a team that had just no hope of an at-large bid, UAB actually has a decent stockpile of good-not-great wins. The Blazers beat both Drake and Maryland in nonconference play before home wins over FAU and Memphis, a sweep of North Texas and a pair of wins over South Florida. The AAC didn’t get much national respect this season, but that’s a solid collection.
Reason to Worry: Aside from Lendeborg’s blocks and Gaines’ steals, UAB is atrocious on defense. We’re talking “entered Selection Sunday outside the top 200 in eFG%, TO% and Dreb% on KenPom” atrocious. Most respectable foes have had little trouble getting to 75 points against the Blazers.
March Madness Ceiling: Some of the current Blazers weren’t even alive when this happened, but UAB reaching the Sweet 16 by upsetting No. 1 Kentucky in the 2004 NCAA tournament will forever be burned in my brain when the Blazers are in the field. But that team was great on defense, and this one is not. Maybe Gaines and Lendeborg do some heavy lifting in an upset, though.
48. Virginia Cavaliers
Record: 23-10 (13-7 in ACC)
Star Player: With Kihei Clark out of the picture, Reece Beekman took a big step forward this season as Tony Bennett’s lead guard. He led the Cavaliers in points, assists and steals without an even remotely close challenger in any of those categories. Though Virginia’s offense as a whole leaves a lot to be desired, one could make the argument that Beekman should be ACC Player of the Year for practically dragging this team to a tournament bid.
Biggest Wins: Though UVA did not fare well away from home for most of the season, it did score a pair of crucial, nail-biting victories over Florida (neutral) and Clemson (road). The Cavaliers also clipped Wake Forest at home in a 49-47 brickfest, somehow winning a game in which they shot 1-for-11 from the free-throw line.
Reason to Worry: During the regular season, Virginia went 10-0 in games decided by single digits. But it lost nine games, getting absolutely destroyed on a pretty regular basis. This is a program that used to be very comfortable in low-scoring affairs, but it went 7-9 when held below 65 points, which happened more often than not.
March Madness Ceiling: It’s plausible UVA could defend its way to a win or two. It did hold 17 of its opponents to 57 points or fewer, after all. Here’s the thing, though: 15 of those 17 games came at John Paul Jones Arena, and the other two were against woebegone Louisville and West Virginia. We always say that defense travels, but for whatever reason, Virginia’s hasn’t this season. An immediate loss is probable.
47. North Carolina State Wolfpack
Record: 22-14 (9-11 in ACC)
Star Player: It’s the DJ duo—DJ Horne at lead guard and D.J. Burns in the paint. What’s remarkable is the big man leads the team in assists, as making sure to get him a touch down low on as many possessions as possible has been the winning formula for the Wolfpack. But when they aren’t feeding Burns, Horne sure can take over by himself with nearly 100 made triples this season.
Biggest Wins: A week ago? It was a road win over Clemson and home wins over Wake Forest and Virginia. Not much worth looking at. But how about five wins in five days, including victories over Duke and North Carolina on a neutral floor? Because, against all odds, NC State just did that.
Reason to Worry: The reason NC State had to play five games to secure that auto bid is because it had lost 10 of its final 14 games, unable to stop anything on defense in most of those losses. This also generally is not a good shooting team, though it sure seemed like the Wolfpack couldn’t miss against UNC Saturday.
March Madness Ceiling: I’m sorry, you expect me to put a ceiling on this team right now? After it just finished a run through Championship Week that we haven’t seen since the Kemba Walker year? Realistically, the defense will probably keep them from reaching the second weekend. But if you want to bet against NC State right now, be my guest.
46. Oregon Ducks
N’Faly DanteBrian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Record: 23-11 (12-8 in Pac-12)
Star Player: After missing basically the entire first half of the regular season due to yet another injury, N’Faly Dante was incredible for Oregon in the second half. He scored in double figures in each of his final 17 games, including dominating in a Pac-12 tournament where the Ducks needed to win every game to punch their ticket. In addition to the points, he is a great rebounder who also generates a lot of blocks and steals. Just a total game-changer when he’s on.
Biggest Wins: Prior to the Pac-12 tournament, this was a sad list. The road wins over Washington and Washington State were nice, but that’s about it. But beating Arizona in the Pac-12 semifinals and then toppling Colorado in the final Pac-12 championship game was an incredible scene.
Reason to Worry: Oregon got hot this past weekend, but this has just been kind of a “mid” team all season. The defense isn’t great. Perimeter shooting is average, at best. That’s at least partially due to injuries and just never seeming to have a full deck, though. Maybe the Pac-12 tournament was the Ducks finally putting the pieces together. But one 52-hour stretch doesn’t erase four months of mediocrity.
March Madness Ceiling: If Dante is doing his thing with both Jackson Shelstad and Jermaine Couisnard putting in work in the backcourt, let’s just say lack of talent on the roster isn’t why Oregon needed the auto bid to dance. The Ducks could be gearing up for a run to the Sweet 16. At any rate, goodness knows Dana Altman has gotten them there before.
45. James Madison Dukes
Record: 31-3 (15-3 in Sun Belt)
Star Player: JMU’s Terrence Edwards Jr. was named Sun Belt POY, and with good reason. He leads the Dukes in both points and assists, doing a ton of his damage from the charity stripe. He enters the dance having scored at least a dozen in 12 of his last 13 games—all wins by James Madison.
Biggest Wins: It was James Madison that initially laid the groundwork for this topsy-turvy season, going into the Breslin Center and handing then-AP No. 4 Michigan State a shocking loss on opening night. Beyond that, though, JMU’s only noteworthy win was the Sun Belt championship against Arkansas State, keeping us from spending an entire week wondering whether a 30-win team could seriously get left out of the dance.
Reason to Worry: Beating Sparty was great, but that was like 133 days ago. Since then, JMU has gone 0-2 against Quads 1 and 2, swept by Appalachian State while never climbing into the KenPom top 50. The overall stats look good, but how much of that is just a product of playing 23 Q4 games?
March Madness Ceiling: Look, there are a lot of teams that only played a couple of games against Q1/Q2, but James Madison is the only one that won 31. No matter the schedule, you don’t win that consistently unless you’re pretty darn good. The Dukes could win a couple more.
44. McNeese State Cowboys
Shahada WellsMichael Wade/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Record: 30-3 (17-1 in Southland)
Star Player: TCU transfer Shahada Wells had a sensational season on both ends of the floor, averaging better than 17 points, four assists, four rebounds and three steals per game. And when it matters most, he’s likely going to score way more than 17, getting to 27 in each of McNeese’s Southland tournament games, 30 in the win over Michigan and well north of 30 on several other occasions.
Biggest Wins: The Cowboys had three impressive road wins over VCU, UAB and Michigan, each by double-digits. Say what you will about the Wolverines who recently fired their head coach, but that was a statement of a final nonconference win before they drove a freight train through an overmatched conference.
Reason to Worry: McNeese allows three-point attempts at the highest rate in the nation, with 48.1 percent of opponents’ field-goal attempts coming from beyond the arc. Sometimes that means the opposition bricks itself into oblivion, but they’ve allowed at least 10 made triples on 13 occasions. The Cowboys also commit a lot of fouls while hunting steals, and don’t rebound particularly well.
March Madness Ceiling: McNeese State became a Cinderella candidate pretty much from the moment it hired Will Wade a year ago. He got run out of LSU for recruiting violations, but he can coach at a high level and has built something special in a hurry. This is a legitimate “top 50 good” team that dominates the turnover battle and shoots really well from distance. The Cowboys can win tournament games. Yes, plural.
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